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Is Dutch Bros Winning the Coffee Wars With Traffic, Not Pricing?
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Key Takeaways
BROS posted 5.7% same-shop sales growth in Q3 2025, led by a 4.7% rise in transactions.
BROS drove traffic via Order Ahead at 13% of sales and Dutch Rewards, making up about 72% of transactions.
BROS improved labor and throughput to handle long drive-thru lines, while food added morning visits.
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) is increasingly standing out in the crowded coffee landscape by leaning on traffic growth rather than aggressive pricing. The company’s third-quarter 2025 results underscore a strategy centered on transactions, customer engagement and operational execution instead of pushing higher checks.
In the quarter, system same-shop sales rose 5.7%, driven primarily by a robust 4.7% increase in transactions. Pricing contributed about two points, but that benefit was largely offset by mix, highlighting that volume, not price, is doing the heavy lifting. This makes Dutch Bros an outlier at a time when many restaurant peers rely on price hikes to sustain comps.
Management attributed the traffic strength to several transaction-driving levers. Order Ahead reached 13% of sales mix, improving convenience and throughput, particularly in newer markets. Meanwhile, Dutch Rewards accounted for roughly 72% of system transactions, with increasingly segmented offers supporting frequency without excessive discounting. These tools are helping Dutch Bros capture visits across dayparts and resonate strongly with younger consumers, a cohort showing resilience despite broader macro pressures.
Operationally, improvements in labor deployment and throughput have allowed the brand to handle consistently long drive-thru lines without sacrificing service. Even the early-stage food rollout is reinforcing the traffic story, adding incremental visits in the morning daypart rather than simply inflating tickets. Taken together, Dutch Bros appears to be winning share by building habits, not by testing price elasticity. In a competitive coffee market, that traffic-led model may prove more durable than price-driven growth.
Shares of Dutch Bros have lost 1.7% in the past six months compared with the 5.2% decline in the industry. In the same time frame, shares of other industry players like Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) , Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) have plunged 4.8%, 42.3% and 26.8%, respectively.
BROS Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, BROS trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.03, above the industry’s average of 3.58. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and Chipotle, have P/S multiples of 2.58, 1.23 and 4.06, respectively.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ 2026 earnings per share has increased to 88 cents in the past 30 days. The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating a 29.8% rise in 2026.
Image: Bigstock
Is Dutch Bros Winning the Coffee Wars With Traffic, Not Pricing?
Key Takeaways
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS - Free Report) is increasingly standing out in the crowded coffee landscape by leaning on traffic growth rather than aggressive pricing. The company’s third-quarter 2025 results underscore a strategy centered on transactions, customer engagement and operational execution instead of pushing higher checks.
In the quarter, system same-shop sales rose 5.7%, driven primarily by a robust 4.7% increase in transactions. Pricing contributed about two points, but that benefit was largely offset by mix, highlighting that volume, not price, is doing the heavy lifting. This makes Dutch Bros an outlier at a time when many restaurant peers rely on price hikes to sustain comps.
Management attributed the traffic strength to several transaction-driving levers. Order Ahead reached 13% of sales mix, improving convenience and throughput, particularly in newer markets. Meanwhile, Dutch Rewards accounted for roughly 72% of system transactions, with increasingly segmented offers supporting frequency without excessive discounting. These tools are helping Dutch Bros capture visits across dayparts and resonate strongly with younger consumers, a cohort showing resilience despite broader macro pressures.
Operationally, improvements in labor deployment and throughput have allowed the brand to handle consistently long drive-thru lines without sacrificing service. Even the early-stage food rollout is reinforcing the traffic story, adding incremental visits in the morning daypart rather than simply inflating tickets.
Taken together, Dutch Bros appears to be winning share by building habits, not by testing price elasticity. In a competitive coffee market, that traffic-led model may prove more durable than price-driven growth.
BROS Stock’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Dutch Bros have lost 1.7% in the past six months compared with the 5.2% decline in the industry. In the same time frame, shares of other industry players like Starbucks Corporation (SBUX - Free Report) , Sweetgreen, Inc. (SG - Free Report) and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG - Free Report) have plunged 4.8%, 42.3% and 26.8%, respectively.
BROS Six-Month Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, BROS trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 5.03, above the industry’s average of 3.58. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and Chipotle, have P/S multiples of 2.58, 1.23 and 4.06, respectively.
P/S (F12M)
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BROS’ 2026 earnings per share has increased to 88 cents in the past 30 days. The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating a 29.8% rise in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
BROS currently has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.